For nearly 40 years, the relationship between the United States and Iran has been strained and unsure. Before 2015, the United States and Iran hadn’t engaged in diplomatic talks since 1979. This changed when President Barack Obama engaged the US in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in which the United Nations Security Council and Germany entered into an agreement with Iran. As a result of this shift, the world waited to see whether the plan of action signaled a long-lasting shift in the relationship as a whole. However, recent events, including the shift from Democrat to Republican leadership in the US executive administration have created further uncertainty.
As commentators and international relations scholars have theorized, several likely scenarios could unfold in the coming years. First, one path for relations between the US and Iran features the collapse of JCPOA. If either the Western countries or Iran violate the agreement, it puts the future of the US-Iran relationship on uncertain or hostile terms. Iran, in this scenario, could continue on its path to nuclear proliferation and the US could impose more economic sanctions or engage in retaliatory efforts. If President Donald Trump dismantles JCPOA, this scenario could play out.
The second potential situation is for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to engage with the US to establish a better relationship. This is unlikely, based on Khamenei’s reluctance to have any dealings with the US. He has expressed suspicion that the US is trying to influence Iran and gradually take control. However, if this unprecedented shift happened, the diplomatic ties between the countries would strengthen for the first time since the revolution.
In the most likely scenario, Iran and the US will continue the staring match they have been in since JCPOA. Although President Trump’s actions are difficult to predict, antagonizing Iran would result in a degradation of cooperation in the mutual interest the two countries have, including the fight against ISIS. If the US prioritizes getting information and support from Iran in this fight, further negativity in the relationship is not in America’s best interest.
Working since 1997 and officially founded in 2012, the Organization for Iranian-American Communities (OAIC) is a nonprofit, bipartisan group dedicated to advocating for a democratic government in Iran, founded on respect for human rights, religious tolerance, and equality among all citizens. We seek to uphold and promote the rich heritage of Iran, bringing together communities of Iranian-Americans in the US and connecting them through a mutual interest in the future of the country. We share news and hold events throughout the year—all in the service of our foremost goals. Take a look at our website’s blog or news feed to learn more about what we do.
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